How well do admission criteria predict student performance in one medical course?

Admission criteria for medical schools in Saudi Arabia-such as the General Aptitude Test (GAT), Scholastic Achievement Admission Test (SAAT), and English proficiency-are intended to predict student success. Yet, their effectiveness in forecasting performance in core medical courses taught in English remains uncertain.

This cross-sectional study examined 210 Saudi medical students at a single institution, analyzing how GAT, SAAT, and English proficiency measures (English course average, reading test, and communication test) predicted grades in a medical biology course. Data were analyzed using simple and multivariate regression models, with additional correlation and diagnostic checks.

Individually, GAT and SAAT explained only 5.0% and 5.3% of the variance in biology grades, respectively. English proficiency was a stronger predictor: English average (12.2%), reading test (19.0%), and communication test (18.1%). Combined, these variables accounted for 26.6% of variance, with the communication test emerging as the strongest predictor (p < 0.01), followed by the reading test (p < 0.05).

Standardized admission tests such as GAT and SAAT show limited predictive value for biology performance in an English-medium curriculum, while English proficiency demonstrates stronger associations. These findings, though based on a single course at one institution, highlight the importance of language skills in early medical education. The study offers preliminary, hypothesis-generating evidence that can inform broader investigations and future admission reforms aligned with Saudi Vision 2030.