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Updated: May 6, 2026

Comprehensive & Cost Effective Laboratory Monitoring of HIV/AIDS: an African Role Model
Published on: November 1, 2010
Mathematical modeling and neural network based fitting of HIV/AIDS data in the workingclass population case study
Abdulsamad Engida Sado1,2, Gemechis File Duressa3, Chernet Tuge Deressa3
1Mathematics, Debre Berhan University, Debre Berhan, Amhara, Ethiopia. AbdulsamadEngida@dbu.edu.et.
None:
HIV/AIDS deeply affects society, forcing people to leave their jobs and family responsibilities. This not only impacts their lives but also has a negative effect on the economy. HIV/AIDS affects development and growth by lowering productivity, income, and poverty levels. This study examines the impact of HIV/AIDS on Ethiopia's workingclass population using mathematical and neural network-based modeling, aiming to develop an accurate predictive framework. A supervised DNN with sigmoid activation is trained on WHO data (2000-2023) to predict disease incidence and transmission. Numerical simulations show that utilizing feedforward DNN methods gives precise solutions for advanced epidemiological models. The model attained a prediction accuracy above 99% and revealed a gradual rise in HIV incidence among nonproductive individuals over two decades. Finally, the trend of HIV/AIDS infection in Ethiopia from 2024 to 2050 is forecasted. The full-blown AIDS and infected class population approaches zero. Based on our estimated parameters and numerical simulations, it is evident that the application of neural network methods marks a significant advancement in the field of epidemiological modeling.
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