Racial and ethnic disparities in middle school suspension trajectories: An integrated bioecological approach

School suspensions disproportionately affect Black and Latine students, perpetuating racial and ethnic disparities in education. Guided by Bronfenbrenner's mature bioecological framework, this study utilized longitudinal data from a racially and ethnically diverse sample of students (N = 3115; 48 % female; M__ageT1 = 11 years; 40 % Latine, 31 % Black, 29 % White) from 36 urban public middle schools in the Midwest. Longitudinal latent class analysis identified three distinct suspension trajectories: rare, occasional, and frequent. Multilevel multinomial logistic models examined how individual (e.g., aggression, delinquency), interpersonal (parental monitoring, teacher trust), and contextual (e.g., school poverty, racial and ethnic composition) factors independently and interactively influenced trajectory membership. Findings revealed that Black students, particularly Black female students, were disproportionately represented in the frequent suspension trajectory group, reflecting disciplinary biases. Aggression predicted membership in both the occasional and frequent suspension trajectories, while delinquency uniquely predicted membership in the frequent trajectory. Parental monitoring offered limited protective effects, whereas teacher trust significantly reduced the risk of suspensions. At the school level, poverty was positively associated with membership in the frequent suspension trajectory, while higher proportions of Black and Latine students were associated with membership in the rare and occasional trajectories. These results highlight the need for systemic reforms aimed at creating inclusive and equitable school environments.