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Infrastructure Resilience to Surprise.

Thomas P Seager1, Mazin H AbdelMagid1, Emily A Pesicka2

  • 1School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, USA.

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Risk analysis struggles with surprise due to misconceptions. This study proposes a framework viewing surprise as an expectation violation, leading to adaptive learning or maladaptive shock responses, crucial for infrastructure resilience.

Keywords:
infrastructureresilienceshocksurprise

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Area of Science:

  • Risk Analysis and Management
  • Infrastructure Resilience
  • Cognitive Science

Background:

  • The concept of surprise is poorly defined in risk analysis literature, hindering effective management.
  • Common misconceptions frame surprise as ignorance or preventable adverse events, leading to flawed strategies.
  • Current approaches overemphasize knowledge acquisition over preparation for unexpected disruptions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To critically examine the concept of surprise within infrastructure resilience.
  • To deconstruct common misconceptions about surprise in risk analysis.
  • To propose a corrective framework for understanding and responding to surprise.

Main Methods:

  • Conceptual analysis of surprise and its role in risk management.
  • Examination of cognitive responses to unexpected events.
  • Development of a framework for adaptive responses to surprise.

Main Results:

  • Identified four key misconceptions obstructing progress in surprise management.
  • Defined surprise as an event violating expectations, triggering cognitive reactions.
  • Distinguished between adaptive (learning) and maladaptive (shock) responses to surprise.

Conclusions:

  • Understanding adaptive and maladaptive responses is vital for enhancing infrastructure resilience.
  • Shifting focus from eliminating surprise to embracing it for learning and adaptation is essential.
  • Training programs can strengthen adaptive capacities of infrastructure managers to better handle surprise.