From net-zero to zero-fossil in transforming the EU energy system

Area of Science:

• Climate Science
• Energy Systems Analysis
• Environmental Economics

Background:

• The European Union's climate neutrality objective necessitates substantial reductions in fossil fuel consumption.
• The feasibility and desirability of a complete fossil fuel phase-out remain subjects of ongoing debate and analysis.

Purpose of the Study:

• To quantify the additional efforts and costs associated with a nearly complete EU-wide fossil fuel phase-out by 2050.
• To compare a full phase-out scenario with a least-cost net-zero emissions pathway.

Main Methods:

• Utilized an integrated assessment model to simulate and compare different energy transition scenarios.
• Quantified fossil fuel consumption, energy supply, and marginal abatement costs under various policy assumptions.

Main Results:

• In a least-cost net-zero scenario, EU fossil fuel consumption is projected to decrease by 90% by 2050, met by renewables, electrification, hydrogen, and biofuels.
• Persistent fossil fuel use is identified in the chemical industry, aviation, and shipping, requiring carbon-neutral e-fuels for elimination.
• Marginal abatement costs increase significantly, from 460 EUR to 630 EUR per ton of CO2, when pursuing a full fossil phase-out.

Conclusions:

• A complete fossil fuel phase-out presents substantial additional transformation challenges for the EU.
• The deployment of costly e-fuels is essential for sectors where fossil fuels are currently hard to replace.
• Strengthening climate policy with a full fossil phase-out target entails significantly higher economic costs.