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Updated: May 11, 2026

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Short-term action is key for gigaton-scale Direct Air Capture by 2050.

Tatjana Zurbriggen1, Nicoletta Brazzola2,3,4, Adrian Odenweller5

  • 1Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED), ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland.

Nature Communications
|May 9, 2026
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Scaling Direct Air Capture (DAC) requires early capacity growth, not just future demand. Timely policy support is crucial for achieving gigaton-scale carbon removal by 2050.

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Area of Science:

  • Climate Change Mitigation
  • Chemical Engineering
  • Technology Policy

Background:

  • Direct Air Capture (DAC) is vital for net-zero and net-negative emissions goals.
  • The scalability of DAC to climate-relevant levels is currently uncertain.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To model future Direct Air Capture (DAC) deployment pathways to 2050.
  • To identify key drivers for scaling DAC capacity.
  • To assess the impact of policy on DAC deployment.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a probabilistic technology diffusion model.
  • Incorporated historical technology analogs (ammonia synthesis, LNG).
  • Modeled uncertain future demand scenarios.

Main Results:

  • DAC deployment hinges on early capacity expansion and growth dynamics.
  • Without strong early policy, DAC may remain at megaton scale by 2050.
  • Gigaton-scale DAC deployment is achievable with rapid growth and policy support.

Conclusions:

  • Early capacity expansion is the most effective lever for accelerating DAC deployment.
  • Timely policy interventions are critical to ensure significant DAC scale-up.
  • Avoiding overreliance on future carbon removal necessitates proactive DAC development.