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Potential Impact of Updated Bayesian Deduction in Medicine: Application to Colonoscopy Prioritization.
Pierre Collet1,2,3, Felipe Quezada-Diaz2,3, Carla Taramasco1,2,3
1ITISB, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad Andres Bello, Viña del Mar, Chile 2520000, Chile.
Cancers
|December 11, 2025
Summary
Updated Bayesian Deduction (UBD) improves colorectal cancer (CRC) screening by integrating multiple faecal immunochemical tests (FITs). This strategy enhances risk stratification and resource allocation, making early CRC detection more accessible and affordable globally.
Area of Science:
- Medical Diagnostics
- Biostatistics
- Public Health
Background:
- Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a leading cause of cancer mortality globally, with early detection crucial for improved prognosis.
- Long colonoscopy waiting times in public healthcare systems, like Chile's, impede timely diagnosis and treatment for symptomatic patients.
- Current single-test screening methods (e.g., FIT) offer limited certainty, leading to inefficient resource allocation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To introduce and evaluate Updated Bayesian Deduction (UBD) for colorectal cancer (CRC) detection and prioritisation.
- To assess UBD's potential to improve risk stratification compared to traditional symptom-based screening.
- To demonstrate a cost-effective and adaptable screening model for widespread CRC detection.
Main Methods:
- Developed a deductive approach integrating sequential, independent faecal immunochemical tests (FITs) to dynamically update CRC probability.
- Applied a four-round FIT protocol using UBD in a case study for risk stratification analysis.
- Modeled the impact of a 4-FIT UBD screening strategy on Chile's Metropolitan Region population.
Main Results:
- Mathematical modeling indicated that over 85% of colonoscopies for symptomatic patients were not urgent.
- A 4-FIT UBD screening of Chile's Metropolitan Region would identify 19.6 CRC cases per 100,000 individuals, requiring only 96 urgent colonoscopies per 100,000.
- The proposed 4x FITs plus limited colonoscopies approach is significantly more affordable than colonoscopy-only screening, enabling broader adoption.
Conclusions:
- UBD-based screening offers a cost-effective solution for countries with limited colonoscopy resources, like Chile.
- Implementing UBD can optimize resource allocation, improve urgent case access, and enhance CRC five-year survival rates.
- UBD presents a promising, explainable, and adaptable framework for evidence-based precision medicine in CRC screening and prioritisation.
