Quantifying the risk of long-term chikungunya persistence in Miami-Dade county

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a mosquito-borne arbovirus with the potential to establish sustained transmission in subtropical regions like Florida, where climatic and ecological conditions support vector proliferation. In this study, we develop a Continuous-Time Markov Chain (CTMC) model to assess the probability of long-term CHIKV establishment in Miami-Dade County following repeated introductions of external infectious individuals over a finite period of time. This work aims to identify seasonal windows of heightened endemic risk and evaluate the impact of vector control strategies on mitigating the likelihood of persistent transmission. These results generate insights into the dynamics of CHIKV and inform targeted interventions to prevent its transition from minor sporadic outbreaks to endemic circulation.