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Published on: August 7, 2017
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Exploring end-to-end earthquake early warning performance in large earthquakes using the February 2023 Kahramanmaraş,
Savvas Marcou1,2, Angela I Lux3, Andrei Akimov3
1Berkeley Seismological Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley, 94703, Berkeley, CA, USA. savvas.marcou@berkeley.edu.
Scientific Reports
|December 12, 2025
Summary
Earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) can provide up to 20 seconds of warning time for significant shaking, even with alert delays. This study demonstrates EEWS effectiveness using real data from the 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquake sequence.
Area of Science:
- Geophysics
- Seismology
- Earthquake Engineering
Background:
- Earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) are crucial for mitigating seismic risks in populated areas.
- The 2023 Kahramanmaraş, Türkiye earthquake sequence provided a unique opportunity to test EEWS performance with real-world data.
- Uncertainty exists regarding EEWS effectiveness, especially for large earthquakes near urban centers.
Purpose of the Study:
- To simulate realistic warning times using data from the 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes.
- To evaluate the performance of the EPIC point source algorithm in real-time earthquake characterization.
- To assess the impact of alert delivery latency on warning times.
Main Methods:
- Utilized waveform data from the M7.8 Pazarcık and M7.5 Elbistan earthquakes.
- Employed the EPIC point source algorithm for rapid earthquake characterization.
- Incorporated a statistical model of alert delivery latency based on MyShake app data.
Main Results:
- The EPIC algorithm provided rapid solutions (4s for Pazarcık, 10s for Elbistan).
- Despite initial magnitude underestimation, EPIC's estimates quickly improved.
- Simulations showed potential warning times of up to 20 seconds for MMI 6+ shaking with low alerting thresholds.
Conclusions:
- EEWS can be effective even with inherent system latencies and initial magnitude uncertainties.
- Low alerting thresholds (MMI 3-4) are critical for maximizing warning times.
- The Kahramanmaraş earthquake sequence validated the potential of EEWS in high-impact seismic events.
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