Plastic Surgery Workforce Projections in the United States (2022-2037): Anticipating Shortfalls Using the Health...

Area of Science:

• Plastic surgery workforce analysis
• Physician supply and demand modeling
• Healthcare access and equity

Background:

• Plastic surgery is a diverse specialty crucial for reconstructive, aesthetic, and functional care.
• Current understanding of long-term plastic surgery workforce adequacy in the U.S. is limited.
• Rising demand raises concerns about maldistribution, training capacity, and future needs.

Purpose of the Study:

• To project the U.S. plastic surgery workforce supply and demand from 2022 to 2037.
• To assess the national and regional adequacy of the plastic surgery workforce.
• To identify potential workforce deficits and inform policy.

Main Methods:

• Utilized the Health Resources and Services Administration's Health Workforce Simulation Model for projections.
• Modeled physician supply (full-time equivalents) considering trainees, retirements, and attrition.
• Assessed demand under status quo and reduced barriers scenarios, analyzing supply-to-demand ratios.

Main Results:

• Plastic surgery supply is projected to decrease by 22.1% by 2037, with demand increasing by 6%.
• National adequacy is expected to fall to 74% (status quo) and 52% (reduced barriers).
• Rural areas will remain underserved, 46 states may face deficits, and plastic surgery may have the lowest adequacy among specialties.

Conclusions:

• A significant U.S. plastic surgery workforce mismatch is projected within the next decade.
• Expanded training, targeted distribution, and policies to reduce access barriers are essential.
• Addressing these issues is critical for ensuring equitable access to surgical care.