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Author Spotlight: Understanding Riverine Nitrogen Impacts and Primary Productivity for Effective Nutrient Management

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Published on: July 14, 2023

Declining Predictions of Net Ecosystem Production in US Rivers and Streams Throughout the 21st Century.

Qi Guan¹, Kun Shi¹, R Iestyn Woolway²

¹State Key Laboratory of Lake and Watershed Science for Water Security, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 211135, China.

Environmental Science & Technology

|December 17, 2025

Summary

River metabolism is changing due to climate change, with increasing gross primary production (GPP) and decreasing ecosystem respiration (ER). This shift towards net heterotrophy threatens aquatic biodiversity and ecosystem resilience.

Keywords:

climate change continental scale decline metabolism river ecosystems

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Area of Science:

Riverine ecosystem metabolism
Aquatic carbon cycling
Climate change impacts on freshwater ecosystems

Background:

River metabolism is crucial for carbon cycling.
Understanding climate change impacts on riverine metabolism is vital for ecosystem health.
Long-term data on river metabolism across large spatial scales are limited.

Purpose of the Study:

To reconstruct and analyze long-term daily river metabolism across the continental US.
To investigate trends in gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem production (NEP) from 1980 to 2020.
To project future changes in river metabolism under climate change scenarios.

Main Methods:

Utilized deep-learning models trained on extensive datasets.
Reconstructed daily metabolism for 293 rivers and streams.
Analyzed trends in GPP, ER, and NEP in relation to environmental variables like runoff, insolation, discharge, and temperature.

Main Results:

Continental US rivers showed a significant increase in GPP (0.045 g O2 m-2 day-1 decade-1) and a stronger decline in ER (0.078 g O2 m-2 day-1 decade-1) from 1980 to 2020.
These trends resulted in a slight decrease in Net Ecosystem Production (NEP) over the past four decades.
Future climate scenarios project a continued decline in NEP at a rate of 0.017 ± 0.008 g O2 m-2 day-1 decade-1.

Conclusions:

Riverine metabolism is shifting towards net heterotrophy, driven by asymmetric changes in GPP and ER.
This persistent shift poses a threat to aquatic biodiversity.
Weakened ecological resilience of flowing waters to climate change is a major concern.