Measuring and Forecasting the Healthy Eating Index in Iran: 1991-2027

Area of Science:

• Nutrition Science
• Public Health
• Epidemiology

Background:

• Healthy Eating Index (HEI-2015) adherence is linked to reduced mortality and chronic disease prevalence.
• Understanding national dietary patterns is crucial for public health interventions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To calculate and analyze Iran's HEI-2015 trends over 30 years (1991-2020).
• To project future HEI-2015 trends for the next 7 years.
• To assess the relationship between dietary guidelines and health outcomes in Iran.

Main Methods:

• A repeated cross-sectional study utilizing Household Income-Expenditure Survey (HIES) data from 1991-2020.
• Transformation of HIES questionnaire data into household food consumption data using statistical and nutritional methodologies.
• Data analysis performed using STATA v.17.

Main Results:

• A rising HEI-2015 trend was observed until 2017, followed by a sharp decline.
• The national average HEI-2015 was 48.39 ± 10.25 over the 30-year period.
• Significant regional variations in HEI-2015 were noted, with Sistan and Baluchistan Province having the lowest and Qom Province the highest scores.

Conclusions:

• Household consumption data from HIES serves as a proxy for dietary intake analysis.
• The decline in HEI-2015 post-2017 warrants investigation into contributing factors.
• Regular review and strategic adaptation of food and nutrition policies are recommended, especially during crises.