[CO₂ Emission Patterns and Technology-driven Emission Reduction Pathway in Chinese Oil Refineries]

Under the global climate target, the oil refining industry faces the dual challenge of meeting market demand and achieving decarbonization goals. However, due to the lack of basic data, the current mechanism for translating regional and industry-wide emission reduction targets in the oil refining industry into specific plant-level actions is unclear, making it difficult to satisfy targeted emission reduction decisions with strong technology-driven attributes, segmented facility types, and manufacturing processes. This study focuses on 218 oil refineries in China and establishes a long-term sequence, facility-level carbon emission inventory that covers key information such as the production processes and service life of each refinery. Through the analysis and tracking of emission patterns from 2000 to 2020, the main emission contributors were identified from three dimensions： operators, configuration types, and production processes. Based on this, a bottom-up emission reduction model that fully considers factors such as process equipment and operational details was further developed to achieve fine-grained dynamic simulation of the emission reduction path of oil refineries. The results showed that Chinese oil refineries emitted approximately 3.99 billion tons of greenhouse gases from 2000 to 2020, with 68.3% coming from 53 major deep-conversion refineries. Notably, seven ultra-high carbon emission refineries alone contributed 22.1% of the total emissions. For these ultra-high emission refineries, measures such as decommissioning or installing mitigation technologies are crucial for promoting emission reduction in the entire industry. Given the differences in operational strategies, service life, and configuration types, the most suitable emission reduction strategies varied among refineries. By comprehensively utilizing strategies such as carbon capture and storage technology, cleaner hydrogen production technology, and shortening the transformation cycle, the decarbonization potential of oil refineries can be maximized, with an expected cumulative emission reduction of approximately 6.2 billion tons in China's oil refining industry by 2070.