[Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of Logistics Digitization and its Mechanism]

Digital economy provides a new opportunity for the development of green logistics, and digital transformation has become an important way for the logistics industry to save energy and reduce emissions. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2022, the spatial Durbin model, nonlinear intermediary effect model, and nonlinear regulatory effect model were constructed to investigate the carbon emission reduction effect of logistics industry digitization and its internal mechanism and enhancement path. The results showed that： ① The digitalization of the logistics industry had an inverted "U"-shaped effect on carbon emissions. This nonlinear effect had a spatial spillover effect that was stronger than the direct effect. Currently, 17 of China's 30 provinces, including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Hubei, Anhui, Fujian, Shanxi, Henan, Guangxi, Sichuan, Liaoning, Tianjin, Hunan, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia, have already crossed the inflection point, and the rest of the provinces remain on the left side of the inflection point. The conclusion was still valid after a series of robustness tests. Further heterogeneity analysis showed that, from a regional perspective, the local carbon emission reduction effect of logistics digitalization in the central region was the most prominent, and the spatial spillover effect of carbon emission reduction of logistics digitalization in the eastern region was the most prominent. From the perspective of digital input sources, the improvement of digital hardware level could reduce the carbon emissions of the logistics industry, while the impact of digital software on the carbon emissions of the logistics industry was inverted "U"-shaped. Compared with that of digital hardware, digital software had a more prominent carbon reduction effect. ② The results of mechanism analysis showed that green technology innovation and energy use efficiency played a nonlinear mediating role in the impact of logistics digitization on carbon emissions. Specifically, the digitalization of the logistics industry had a "U"-shaped nonlinear impact on green technology innovation and energy utilization efficiency, while the improvement of green technology innovation and energy utilization efficiency was conducive to reducing carbon emissions in the logistics industry. ③ The agglomeration and energy structure optimization of the logistics industry had a significant moderating effect on the carbon emission reduction effect of digitalization, in which the industrial agglomeration had an "amplifier" effect on the carbon emission reduction effect of logistics digitalization, that is, the improvement of the agglomeration level could enhance the inverted "U"-shaped impact of logistics digitalization on carbon emissions. Additionally, the energy structure optimization could slow down the carbon emission increase effect of logistics digitization in the early stage of transformation but could not enhance the carbon emission reduction effect of logistics digitization in the mature stage of transformation. Based on the conclusions of the study, countermeasures were proposed for the green and low-carbon development of the logistics industry in terms of creating a digital logistics ecosystem integrating software and hardware, promoting the utilization of clean energy in the logistics industry and the transformation and upgrading of industrial clusters, and promoting the synergistic low-carbon development of regional logistics. This study deepens the theoretical exploration of the carbon emission reduction mechanism of the logistics digitalization and provides a path choice for China's logistics industry to achieve green and low-carbon transformation under the "dual carbon" vision.