[Simulation of Multi-scenario Land Use Change and Carbon Storage in Protected Areas of Beijing]

Accurate quantification and assessment of terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage is the key to revealing the regional carbon cycle. As an indispensable ecological carbon pool in nature, protected areas can make multiple contributions toward the realization of carbon neutrality in the region. At present, Beijing has basically formed a scientific and rational system of protected areas. An in-depth analysis of the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of its carbon storage is not only of great significance for continuously consolidating and enhancing its carbon sink capacity but also as the key to maintaining the ecological security of the city. Taking the protected areas in Beijing as the research object, the land use change under the natural development scenario and ecological conservation scenario in 2035 was simulated by coupling the G-MOP and PLUS models, and the temporal and spatial changes in carbon storage were analyzed by combining the InVEST model. The results showed that： ① From 2000-2020, the area of protected areas in Beijing expanded significantly, and the land use type in the overall area was mainly forest land, with the coverage area increasing year by year, followed by grassland, with the coverage area decreasing year by year. ② From 2000-2020, the carbon storage of protected areas in Beijing increased from 82.46×10⁶ t in 2000 to 83.09×10⁶ t in 2020, of which the growth from 2000-2005 accounted for 86.22% of the total growth. ③ In 2035, the ecological conservation scenario could significantly increase the area of forest land and reduce the area of construction land. Its carbon storage is expected to increase to 85.89×10⁶ t, while the carbon storage predicted by the natural development scenario will decrease. The results show that the management of protected areas in Beijing has effectively improved regional carbon storage and ecosystem services, emphasizing the importance of limiting the transfer of land with high ecological value to the city. It provides theoretical support for the planning and management of protected areas and the maintenance of the ecological security pattern of the capital, while also providing practical guidance for the adaptation of future resource utilization and socio-economic conditions.