[Spatio-temporal Change and Attribution Analysis of Vegetation Coverage in Tarim River Basin Based on KNDVI]

Vegetation is a fundamental component of terrestrial ecosystems, and studying the spatiotemporal changes in vegetation cover and its driving factors is crucial for ecological environmental protection and sustainable development in arid regions. Taking the Tarim River Basin as the study area, the kernel normalized difference vegetation index （KNDVI） was calculated based on the GEE cloud platform to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and trends of vegetation cover in the region. The driving factors and influence paths of vegetation cover changes were explored using the optimal parameter geographical detector and partial least squares structural equation modeling. The results showed that： From 2000 to 2020, vegetation cover in the Tarim River Basin remained generally stable, with approximately 80.60% of the area showing no significant change, 16.71% of the area showing improvement, and only 2.69% of the area exhibiting a degradation trend. Among the driving factors influencing vegetation cover, population density （Pop）, gross domestic product （GDP）, precipitation （Pre）, and land surface temperature （Lst） demonstrated strong explanatory power, particularly the interactions between DEM & Lst, GDP & Lst, and Pre & Pop. Human activities had a direct positive impact on vegetation cover, while terrain, climate, and air pollution had direct negative effects on vegetation cover. However, the indirect impact of terrain was positive. The total impacts of terrain, climate, human activities, and air pollution were 0.210, -0.998, 0.183, and -0.104, respectively, indicating that terrain and human activities played a certain role in promoting vegetation cover in the Tarim River Basin. The study revealed the changes in vegetation cover and their key driving factors in the Tarim River Basin, providing scientific evidence for improving ecological environmental monitoring and protection in arid areas.