Identifying Priority Habitat for Conservation of the Australian Bustard Under Climate Change Scenarios

Birds are widely regarded as important indicators of environmental change, and identifying areas that are critical for their conservation is pivotal. The Australian bustard (Ardeotis australis), a wide-ranging species of ecological and cultural significance, faces ongoing habitat modifications, yet its future distribution under changing climatic conditions remains uncertain. This study applies ensemble Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) to quantify the species' current and future habitat suitability under four climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) for 2050 and 2070. Results indicate that 69.7% of Australia is currently suitable for Australian bustards, primarily in arid and semi-arid regions. Future projections show moderate habitat contraction, with losses mainly in coastal and semi-arid regions, particularly in southern Australia, while inland arid areas remain relatively stable. Overlay analyses suggest that protected areas, including Indigenous Protected Areas (IPAs), will continue to support suitable habitat, reinforcing their role as long-term climate refugia. Key environmental drivers influencing habitat suitability include precipitation seasonality (BIO15), precipitation in the coldest quarter (BIO19), and mean diurnal temperature range (BIO2), underscoring the species' reliance on predictable climatic patterns. Anthropogenic variables, particularly proximity to built-up areas also contribute to habitat suitability, forecasting that ongoing land-use changes may exacerbate climate-driven habitat loss. Using estimated cleared areas (0.3 ha/MW), we also found that around 41% of under-construction, 36% of operational, and 46% of proposed wind farms overlap with suitable habitat for the species, highlighting potential future conflict zones. This study provides the first national-scale assessment of current and projected habitat dynamics for the Australian bustard, offering critical insights for conservation planning. Future conservation strategies should prioritise habitat connectivity, minimise anthropogenic disturbances, and integrate Indigenous-led management approaches to ensure the species' long-term persistence in a changing climate.