Bladder Cancer Burden in the USA: Population Scenarios for 2040

Area of Science:

• Oncology
• Epidemiology
• Biostatistics

Background:

• Bladder cancer is a significant health concern, particularly among men, presenting substantial management costs.
• Epidemiological trends and natural history require robust modeling for accurate forecasting.
• Workforce planning necessitates reliable projections of future disease burden.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and independently validate three microsimulation models for bladder cancer.
• To project the future burden of bladder cancer in the USA through 2040.
• To inform public health strategies and resource allocation.

Main Methods:

• Development of three independent microsimulation models.
• Calibration of models using Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program data.
• Simulation of individual life histories to estimate epidemiological metrics and disease progression.

Main Results:

• Models accurately reproduced SEER incidence data.
• Lifetime risk of bladder cancer increased across birth cohorts, linked to longevity and smoking.
• Despite declining incidence rates, the overall disease burden is projected to rise due to an aging population.

Conclusions:

• Projected increases in longevity and smoking patterns indicate a growing future bladder cancer burden.
• This necessitates increased research, resources, and potentially new screening strategies.
• Independent model agreement suggests robustness in findings regarding bladder cancer trends.