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CT-based explainable machine learning for predicting benign and malignant thyroid nodules: a multi-center study.

Haijun He1, Mingquan Luo1, Kai Hu1

  • 1Department of Radiology, Nanbu County People's Hospital, Nanchong, Sichuan, China.

Frontiers in Oncology
|December 25, 2025
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

This study developed an explainable machine learning model for predicting thyroid nodule malignancy using CT scans. The combined model accurately differentiates benign from malignant nodules, aiding clinical decisions.

Keywords:
CTSHapley additive explanationsbenignity or malignancymachine learningthyroid nodules

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Area of Science:

  • Radiology
  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Oncology

Background:

  • Thyroid nodules are common, with malignancy prediction posing a clinical challenge.
  • Accurate preoperative differentiation is crucial for appropriate patient management.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and validate a CT-based explainable machine learning model for predicting thyroid nodule malignancy.
  • To improve the accuracy of preoperative diagnosis and guide clinical decision-making.

Main Methods:

  • Retrospective analysis of 370 thyroid nodules with pathological confirmation.
  • Extraction of radiomics features from CT images to create a radiomics score (Rad_Score).
  • Development of clinical, imaging, and combined (clinical + Rad_Score) models using logistic regression (LR) and support vector machine (SVM) algorithms.
  • SHAP analysis for model interpretability.

Main Results:

  • The LR combined model achieved high AUC values (0.962 training, 0.913 internal validation, 0.914 external validation).
  • The combined model outperformed individual clinical and radiomics models.
  • SHAP analysis highlighted the importance of Rad_Score, enhancing model transparency.

Conclusions:

  • The CT-based, explainable combined model using LR demonstrates superior performance for preoperative thyroid nodule malignancy prediction.
  • This non-invasive tool offers an efficient and transparent method for differentiating benign from malignant nodules.
  • The model has the potential to optimize individualized clinical management strategies for thyroid nodules.