COVID-19 impacts and post-pandemic rebound in Pakistan's sectoral greenhouse gas emissions (2018-2023)

This study presents the first multi-year, sectorally disaggregated greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory for Pakistan covering 2018-2023, capturing pre-pandemic, pandemic, and post-pandemic dynamics. Using the 2006 IPCC Guidelines and national activity data by sector, emissions were quantified across energy, industrial processes and product use (IPPU), agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU), and waste sectors. Total GHG emissions declined by 7% during 2019-2020, with energy sector emissions falling 16% from 217 Mt CO₂-eq in 2018 to 184 Mt CO₂-eq in 2020, before rebounding 7% in 2021. A further 18% reduction in 2023, driven by lower industrial and transport energy use, brought emissions to 363 Mt CO₂-eq. IPPU emissions tracked economic fluctuations, rising 21% in 2021 and falling 12% in 2023, while AFOLU and waste emissions increased steadily by 2-3% annually, reflecting structural drivers. These findings indicate that pandemic-related reductions were temporary and economically driven, underscoring the need for structural decarbonization. Sustained mitigation requires renewable energy expansion, energy efficiency improvements, low-carbon industrial technologies, and climate-smart practices in agriculture and waste management. The study provides a robust evidence base to guide Pakistan's mitigation strategies, supporting alignment with Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets and long-term climate and sustainable development goals.