Testing the socio-functional model: Does precarity cause conspiracy belief?

Area of Science:

• Social Psychology
• Political Psychology
• Sociology

Background:

• Traditional research on conspiracy beliefs emphasizes individual psychological factors.
• Emerging research investigates structural disadvantages, like material strain (precarity), as potential drivers.
• The socio-functional model proposes precarity influences conspiracy belief via insecurity and institutional distrust.

Purpose of the Study:

• To test the socio-functional model's proposition that precarity causes conspiracy beliefs.
• To examine the direct and indirect (via institutional distrust) causal effects of precarity on conspiracy belief.
• To investigate these relationships during the current cost-of-living crisis using robust methodologies.

Main Methods:

• Three preregistered studies employing longitudinal observational designs (3 and 11 months) and a between-group experimental design.
• Utilized random intercept cross-lagged panel models to estimate temporal precedence and causal effects.
• Employed a self-imagine paradigm to experimentally manipulate precarity.

Main Results:

• No evidence was found that increases in precarity temporally preceded increases in conspiracy beliefs, or vice versa, in longitudinal studies.
• Stable individual differences in precarity and conspiracy belief were observed across time.
• Experimental manipulation of precarity did not yield a direct or indirect effect on conspiracy belief through reduced government trust.

Conclusions:

• The findings do not support a direct causal role for financial precarity in driving conspiracy beliefs over time.
• While stable individual differences exist, dynamic causal links between precarity and conspiracy belief were not detected.
• Highlights the importance of rigorous causal inference methods and suggests future research directions for the socio-functional model.