Predictors of Teenage Fatherhood Among Justice-Involved Adolescents

Justice-involved boys are more likely to become teenage fathers than their community peers. This is linked to numerous negative outcomes, including increased delinquent behavior. To help legal practitioners better identify which boys are at risk of becoming a teen parent, this study identifies factors at the time of boys' very first arrest that prospectively predict their odds of becoming a teen father. Data were drawn from a longitudinal study of 1216 adolescent boys at the time of their first arrest. Binary logistic regression models were used to predict the odds of becoming a teen father across three domains: individual factors, social and contextual factors, and risky behaviors. Approximately 15% of the total sample (n = 171) reported becoming a teen father after their first arrest. At the time of first arrest, poorer neighborhood conditions, increased peer delinquency, substance use, and self-reported offending history increased the odds that boys would become a teen father. Additional models indicated that substance use was the strongest driver of teen fatherhood. However, all factors failed to reached significance once condom use was included in this model. Practical implications for policymakers are discussed, along with suggestions for interventions to reduce teen pregnancy.