The predictive utility of youth psychopathic traits on subsequent psychopathy and offending

Tools for measuring psychopathy have been widely used as predictive assessments of future offending in correctional settings. Yet, research concerning juvenile psychopathy has yielded mixed results as to its use as a long-term predictive measure of future psychopathy and offending. The present study assesses the predictive utility of two measures of juvenile psychopathy on subsequent psychopathic traits, self-reported offending, and arrests across 7 key years of development.

We hypothesized that both measures of juvenile psychopathic traits would predict future psychopathy, offending, and official arrests but that this predictive utility would significantly diminish from adolescence to young adulthood.

This study used data from Pathways to Desistance, a longitudinal study of 1,170 male youth adjudicated for a serious crime (aged 14-17 at baseline; M = 16.6) who were interviewed across 11 intervals over a 7-year period. A series of mixed-effects models predicted subsequent psychopathy, self-reported offending, and official arrests across 7 years from two measures of juvenile psychopathy: the Psychopathy Checklist-Youth Version and the Youth Psychopathic Traits Inventory. Interactions with time were assessed to probe whether predictive utility attenuated across the study period.

First, psychopathy scores at the first study follow-up predicted future psychopathy scores, but this effect significantly weakened across time. Total psychopathic traits and domain scores significantly predicted greater self-reported offending, but this predictive effect diminished over time (with the exception of the interpersonal domain). Initial psychopathy scores also predicted higher odds of official arrest, which did not attenuate over time.

While some predictive utility of juvenile psychopathy measures was evidenced, the ability of these measures to predict outcomes across time significantly declined. These findings call into question whether psychopathic traits measured in adolescence should be used to make predictions about long-term recidivism risk. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2026 APA, all rights reserved).