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Demography Meets Climate Change: Life History Challenges for a Neotropical Viviparous Lizard.

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Rising global temperatures threaten lizard populations, impacting survival and growth. This study models Notomabuya frenata, revealing vulnerabilities, especially in its northwestern range.

Keywords:
ectothermintegral projection modelmark‐recapturepopulation growthsurvival

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology and evolutionary biology
  • Climate change biology
  • Herpetology

Background:

  • Understanding population dynamics is crucial for biodiversity conservation amid global environmental changes.
  • Long-term demographic studies are key to linking population patterns with environmental drivers.
  • Neotropical viviparous lizards like Notomabuya frenata face potential impacts from climate change.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a demographic distribution model for Notomabuya frenata.
  • To investigate the lizard's response to environmental changes, particularly rising temperatures.
  • To project population trajectories and identify vulnerable areas.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized over 15 years of mark-recapture data.
  • Constructed Integral Projection Models (IPMs) to link vital rates, body size, and environmental factors.
  • Employed a spatially explicit approach to analyze demographic consequences across different locations.

Main Results:

  • Notomabuya frenata exhibits early maturity and intermediate survivorship, placing it on the "slow-fast" life-history continuum.
  • Rising global mean temperatures negatively affect individual survival and reduce population growth.
  • Impacts are most pronounced at the northwestern edge of the species' distribution.

Conclusions:

  • The study highlights the demographic consequences of climate-induced environmental variability on Notomabuya frenata.
  • Rising temperatures pose a significant threat to lizard populations, with uneven impacts across their range.
  • Conservation strategies must consider the spatially explicit nature of climate change effects on biodiversity.