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Trends In Biopharmaceutical Clinical Trials After Medicare Drug Price Negotiation
So-Yeon Kang1, Mingqian Liu2, Yunan Ji3
1So-Yeon Kang, Georgetown University, Washington, D.C.
Health Affairs (Project Hope)
|January 6, 2026
Summary
The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 impacts drug innovation. Medicare drug price negotiations led to fewer clinical trials for drugs subject to these negotiations, especially in oncology.
Area of Science:
- Health Economics
- Pharmaceutical Policy
- Clinical Research
Background:
- The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 allows Medicare to negotiate drug prices.
- This policy has potential consequences for biopharmaceutical innovation and clinical trial activity.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the impact of Medicare drug price negotiations on biopharmaceutical clinical trial initiation.
- To assess trends in trial activity for drugs subject to negotiation versus those not.
Main Methods:
- Utilized ClinicalTrials.gov data for biopharmaceutical trials initiated between 2015 and 2024.
- Compared trial initiation trends for drugs targeted by Medicare negotiation with overall industry trends.
Main Results:
- Overall biopharmaceutical trial activity returned to prepandemic levels.
- Manufacturers with drugs subject to Medicare negotiation initiated fewer clinical trials.
- This reduction was particularly notable in trials for certain cancer types.
Conclusions:
- Medicare drug price negotiations may disincentivize clinical trial investment for affected drugs.
- The findings suggest a potential negative impact on innovation, especially in oncology research.
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