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Precipitation Dominates Forest Net Primary Productivity Variations With Distinct Regional Differences in Yunnan
Xiaofang Yang1,2, Kun Yang1,2,3, Shaohua Zhang1,2
1Faculty of Geography Yunnan Normal University Kunming China.
Ecology and Evolution
|January 7, 2026
Summary
Understanding forest net primary productivity (NPP) drivers is key for carbon sink management. This study reveals nonlinear responses and threshold effects of factors like temperature and precipitation on forest NPP across Yunnan, China.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Environmental Science
- Forestry
Background:
- Forest net primary productivity (NPP) is vital for carbon sinks, especially in diverse regions like Yunnan.
- Understanding drivers and thresholds of NPP is crucial for effective forest management and climate change mitigation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the spatiotemporal variations in forest NPP in Yunnan, China.
- To identify key driving factors and their threshold effects on stable (SF) and changing forests (CF).
- To investigate scale-dependent effects and interactions of multiple factors on forest NPP.
Main Methods:
- Established a comparative framework for stable and changing forests.
- Utilized a random forest model and SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) method for driver analysis.
- Analyzed data across provincial and five subregional scales based on topography and climate.
Main Results:
- Changing forests (CF) showed greater NPP variation and spatial heterogeneity than stable forests (SF).
- Dominant NPP drivers varied by scale: elevation (SF) and precipitation (CF) at the provincial scale; solar radiation, temperature, and forest age at the subregional scale.
- Multiple factor interactions, especially precipitation, significantly influenced NPP; human activities impacted CF NPP. Nonlinear threshold responses were observed for key factors.
Conclusions:
- Forest NPP exhibits complex, nonlinear responses to multiple drivers, with significant scale effects and interactions in mountainous environments.
- Stable forests have narrower optimal ranges for NPP drivers (e.g., temperature, precipitation), while changing forests demonstrate greater adaptability.
- Findings underscore the importance of considering interactions and scale in ecological modeling for forest carbon sink management.
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