Comprehensive evaluation and obstacle factor analysis of water security in Heilongjiang Province based on water...

Against the backdrop of intensifying global climate change and rapid socioeconomic development, water security (WS) has become a critical constraint on sustainable development in Heilongjiang Province. This study integrates water footprint theory and the Driving Force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) model to construct a WS evaluation index system comprising 5 criterion layers and 45 indicators. Utilizing an integrated approach comprising the entropy weighting method, linear weighting method, coupling coordination degree (CCD) model, and obstacle degree model, the research systematically analyzes the evolution and obstacle factors of WS system in Heilongjiang Province from 2000 to 2022. The results indicate that: (1) The WS system in Heilongjiang Province exhibited an overall positive trend, progressed from medium safety (2000-2002) to high safety (2003-2007) and ultimately to very high safety (2008-2022). Despite overall improvement, disparities in development rates of these layers resulted in persistent systemic imbalances. (2) The system coupling degree consistently exceeded 0.98 (high coupling), while coordination shifted from moderate imbalance (2000-2018) to basic coordination (2019-2022). A significant positive correlation existed between CCD and water security index (WSI). (3) Obstacle analysis identified the driving force dimension as the primary constraint. Dominant obstacle factors at the specific metrics level transitioned from engineering-ecological-economic factors in 2000 towards social-economic-management factors in 2022. This study could provide a scientific basis for sustainable water resource management in Heilongjiang Province and offer a valuable reference for WS evaluation in comparable regions.