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Five rules for scientifically credible nature markets
Sophus O S E Zu Ermgassen1,2, Tom Swinfield3, Joseph W Bull4
1Nature-Positive Hub, Department of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. sophus.zuermgassen@biology.ox.ac.uk.
Nature Ecology & Evolution
|January 12, 2026
Summary
Nature markets are growing globally but often fail environmental goals. This study synthesizes research and offers five rules and a checklist to improve nature market integrity and avoid repeated mistakes.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Conservation Biology
- Ecological Economics
Background:
- Nature markets are increasingly popular globally for environmental conservation.
- Decades of practice reveal that nature markets frequently fail to meet their environmental objectives.
- The biodiversity crisis necessitates improved effectiveness of conservation mechanisms like nature markets.
Purpose of the Study:
- To synthesize international research on the history and effectiveness of nature markets.
- To identify essential rules for ensuring nature markets achieve environmental aims.
- To develop a checklist for assessing the scientific credibility of nature market outcomes.
Main Methods:
- Systematic review and synthesis of international research on nature markets.
- Development of five core rules based on scientific evidence for market integrity.
- Application of a checklist to evaluate major global nature markets.
Main Results:
- All assessed major nature markets exhibit integrity risks.
- Nature markets have a history of not achieving stated environmental objectives.
- Five key rules are identified as necessary precursors for environmental success.
Conclusions:
- Nature markets require significant improvements to achieve environmental goals.
- A proposed checklist can guide investors, policymakers, and civil society in evaluating market integrity.
- Evidence-based actions are crucial for enhancing the credibility and effectiveness of nature markets.
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