Towards adaptive management: Future environmental risk assessment of tailing ponds in China under SSP scenarios

Global climate change intensifies rainstorms and reshapes environmental sensitivity, posing growing challenges for managing environmental risks from tailing ponds (TPs). However, existing research fails to integrate multi-scenario climate change with the evolving hazards and environmental sensitivity of TPs, leaving a gap in nationwide assessments of future environmental risks. This study integrated climate change and human activities under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), to project rainstorm intensity, source hazards, environmental sensitivity, and environmental risks for 7232 TPs for 2023-2100. The study further evaluated environmental risk management capability gaps and proposed targeted management strategies. The results indicate significant regional disparities in future hazards, with the highest hazard scores observed in Northwest region, followed by the Southwest. Rainstorm intensity increased across all SSP scenarios. Environmental sensitivity increased only under the SSP3 scenario, but decreased under the others. The spatial pattern of future environmental risks for TPs in China remains "higher in the south, lower in the north". Due to increased rainstorm intensity offsetting the effect of reduced hazards and sensitivity, environmental risk values increased by 2.26 %-3.33 % compared with current conditions across scenarios. Nationally, 69.56 %-80.07 % of TPs exhibited increasing risks. Areas where high environmental risks from TPs overlapped with insufficient management were primarily concentrated in the Mid-South region. Strengthened management could reduce TP environmental risks by 1.18-4.55 %, with wastewater compliance emerging as the most cost-effective priority under constrained resources. This study provides a methodology for global environmental risk assessments of TPs under climate change and offers scientific support for risk prevention and policy-making under SSPs.