[Simulation and Prediction of Carbon Storage Changes in the Panxi Dry Valley Region Under Policy-oriented Scenarios]

The regional carbon storage is profoundly affected by land use changes. In the context of the "dual carbon" goals， policy-oriented land use change prediction is crucial for optimizing land use patterns and enhancing carbon sequestration capacity. Based on the results of the "dual evaluation" and township-level main functional zoning， this study delineated suitable and unsuitable areas for urban construction and used the PLUS model to simulate land use changes in the Panxi dry valley region for 2035. Based on these simulation results， a policy-oriented scenario was constructed， and carbon storage changes under different scenarios were further estimated. Spatial autocorrelation analysis was also conducted to explore the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of carbon storage. The results showed that： ① The western part of the Panxi dry valley region was primarily focused on ecological protection， while the central part emphasized agricultural production and urban development， with a clear spatial pattern. ② By 2035， although the overall land use patterns under both scenarios were similar， construction land expansion was significant under the natural development scenario， whereas the policy-oriented scenario effectively curbed construction land expansion and increased forest and cropland， highlighting the positive role of policies in ecological land protection. ③ In 2035， the carbon storage under the policy-oriented scenario was projected to be 6 517.22×10⁵ t， an increase of 3.50×10⁵ t compared to 6 494.75×10⁵ t under the natural development scenario， whereas the natural development scenario showed a decrease of 18.95×10⁵ t compared to that in 2020. ④ Local spatial autocorrelation analysis indicated that， the spatial distribution characteristics of carbon storage were similar under both scenarios， high-value areas were scattered， while low-value areas were mainly concentrated in river and low-altitude areas along their banks. These findings provide scientific support for the construction of the "Second Granary of Tianfu" and the implementation of the "carbon peak and carbon neutrality" strategy in the Panxi dry valley region.