[Land Use Driving Analysis and Future Development Prediction of the Chishui River Basin （Yunnan Section） Based on the...

The ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yangtze River Basin are major strategic initiatives of the central government. As a critical tributary of the upper Yangtze River， the Chishui River plays an essential role in maintaining regional ecological security. Investigating the spatiotemporal evolution of land use and predicting future scenarios in the Chishui River Basin is not only significant for local development planning but also offers valuable insights for ecological protection and efficient land use in the Yangtze River Basin and similar regions. This study uses the Chishui River Basin （Yunnan section） as a representative case to analyze land use changes and their driving factors while exploring future land use trends under different scenarios. The findings aim to provide scientific guidance for ensuring ecological security and rational land resource utilization. Based on Landsat satellite imagery from 1985 to 2020 and field survey data from 2022 to 2023， land use data were obtained using a supervised classification method and analyzed for spatiotemporal dynamics. Quantitative analysis of the driving factors of land use change was conducted using the PLUS model and the Geodetector model to reveal underlying mechanisms. The PLUS model was then used to predict the spatial distribution of land use in 2035 under different development scenarios. The results showed that： ① Between 1985 and 2020， the overall trend of land use changes in the basin included an initial increase followed by a decrease in cultivated land， a decrease and subsequent stabilization in grassland， an initial decrease followed by an increase in forest and shrubland， stability in water bodies， and a continuous increase in built-up land. ② The expansion of built-up land was primarily influenced by proximity to secondary roads and slope， with the distance to administrative centers being the most decisive factor. Moreover， interactive effects between factors demonstrated synergistic enhancement， with the interaction between natural environment and regional accessibility being the most significant. ③ Under the natural development scenario， cultivated land and forest areas decreased， while built-up land and water areas increased. Under the ecological protection scenario， ecological land areas increased overall， whereas under the farmland protection scenario， rapid growth in cultivated land significantly encroached on other land types. Future land use patterns under different scenarios showed notable variation. As a source area of the Yangtze River， future land use planning and development of the basin should prioritize ecological protection and sustainable development， emphasizing the synergy between environmental conservation and economic growth. The results of this study provide scientific references for land use planning and ecological protection policy-making in the Yangtze River Basin and other ecologically sensitive regions.