Setbacks in achieving tobacco control targets: a temporal trends analysis and projections for 2030

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Epidemiology
• Health Policy Analysis

Background:

• Cigarette consumption remains a significant public health concern globally and in Brazil.
• Monitoring consumption trends and evaluating tobacco control policies are crucial for effective public health interventions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the trend in adult cigarette consumption in Brazilian capitals from 2006 to 2023.
• To project future cigarette use prevalence through 2030.
• To evaluate the effectiveness of current anti-tobacco policies based on consumption trends and projections.

Main Methods:

• Utilized data from the Brazilian National Health Survey (Vigitel) for the period 2006-2023.
• Employed joinpoint regression models for trend analysis of cigarette use prevalence.
• Applied exponential smoothing models to forecast prevalence projections up to 2030.

Main Results:

• Overall adult cigarette use prevalence declined from 15.7% in 2006 to 9.3% in 2023 (Average Annual Percentage Change: -3.3%).
• This downward trend was consistent across most sociodemographic groups, with Goiânia being an exception of stable prevalence.
• A notable slowdown or stagnation in prevalence decline was observed after 2015.
• Projections indicate a prevalence of 7.96% in 2030, falling short of the 40% reduction target (expected 6.24%).

Conclusions:

• Despite an overall decrease, recent trends suggest a weakening of anti-tobacco policy impact.
• Brazil is unlikely to meet its 2030 tobacco reduction targets based on current trajectories.
• Urgent reassessment and expansion of tobacco control strategies are necessary to reverse the observed stagnation and achieve public health goals.