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Updated: Jan 18, 2026

Inducement and Evaluation of a Murine Model of Experimental Myopia
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Does Past Myopia Progression Predict Future Progression?

Wesley T Beaulieu1, Michael X Repka2, Stacy L Pineles3

  • 1Jaeb Center for Health Research, Tampa, Florida, United States.

Investigative Ophthalmology & Visual Science
|January 16, 2026
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Prior changes in spherical equivalent refractive error (SER) and axial length (AL) poorly predict future myopia progression in children. These metrics have limited clinical utility for decision-making or trial participant selection.

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Area of Science:

  • Ophthalmology
  • Pediatric Optometry
  • Myopia Research

Background:

  • Myopia progression is a significant concern in pediatric eye care.
  • Accurate prediction of myopia progression is crucial for timely intervention.
  • Previous refractive error and axial length changes are potential indicators of future progression.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate the predictive value of prior changes in spherical equivalent refractive error (SER) and axial length (AL) for future myopia progression in children.
  • To quantify the accuracy of using past SER and AL measurements to forecast subsequent myopia development.

Main Methods:

  • A post hoc analysis of a randomized controlled trial involving children aged 5-12 years.
  • Data from 136 children with myopia (SER -1.00 to -6.00 D) treated with 0.01% atropine or placebo for 24 months were analyzed.
  • Multivariable linear regression assessed the association between SER/AL changes over the first 12 months and the subsequent 12 months.

Main Results:

  • The positive predictive value of a 0.50-D SER increase in predicting a similar increase later was only 42%.
  • Prior 12-month SER change showed a weak association with subsequent SER change (0.20 D per 1.00 D increase).
  • Prediction intervals for future progression were negligibly improved by including prior changes in SER and AL.

Conclusions:

  • Changes in SER and AL over a 12-month period are poor predictors of future myopia progression in children.
  • These findings suggest limited clinical utility for using prior refractive error and axial length changes in myopia management decisions.
  • The predictive value is insufficient for reliably selecting participants for myopia control clinical trials.