Age estimation using third molars in forced migrant populations: Determining age and probability.

Area of Science:

• Forensic Anthropology
• Radiology
• Biostatistics

Background:

• Accurate age estimation is vital for undocumented forced migrants' legal status and support.
• Dental maturity, specifically the third molar maturity index, is a key indicator for age assessment.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and validate a statistical model for estimating chronological age and its probability distribution.
• The model utilizes third molar maturity index values in forced migrants.

Main Methods:

• Bayesian Calibration approach with a Normal density and Segmented function.
• Model calibration on 481 orthopantomographs of healthy males (2012-2017).
• Validation on 45 forced migrant males from Italian hosting centers (2018).

Main Results:

• The model's breakpoint age was estimated at 18.6 years, indicating a rapid decrease in dental maturity rate post-adolescence.
• Mean error in age estimation was 1.57 years, with a variability of 2 years.
• A dental maturity index of 0.15 correlated with a 75% probability of being 18 years or older.

Conclusions:

• The developed model provides age estimates and probabilities of being a certain age or older, based on dental maturity.
• This offers valuable supplementary data for authorities in age assessment procedures.
• A web application is available for easy retrieval of age estimates and probabilities.