Evaluating Cardiovascular Disease Risk

There was a steady decrease in cardiovascular disease (CVD ischemic heart disease and stroke) mortality from 1960 to 2020, but since then, this decline has reversed. There have been over 228,000 excess CVD deaths through 2022,1 undoubtedly partially due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but the mortality rate continues to rise (arguably due to the rising epidemic of obesity and diabetes). CVD remains the leading cause of death in developed countries, accounting for over 30% of deaths, and risk estimation is a cornerstone approach to guiding CVD prevention in clinical medicine. Data from the CDC reveal that 36% of US adults have no CVD risk factors, 35% have 1, and 29% have 2 or more risk factors. The age-adjusted percentage of adults with 2 or more CVD risk factors has increased between 2013-2014 to August 2021-August 2023, especially in older age groups.2 Assessing the risk for CVD mortality is essential for the disability and life insurance industry required to assess that risk at a single point in time (at the issuance of an insurance policy). Evaluating this risk requires careful attention to modifiable and non-modifiable factors, including hypertension and other co-morbidities, abnormal lipid profiles, and lifestyle inequalities. The goal of this treatise is to evaluate the various CVD calculators, but also to review other risk factors that may not be routinely sought in estimating CVD risk. The importance of apolipoproteinB (apoB) and lipoprotein A (LpA) as better risk predictors than just elevated LDL levels will be emphasized, and evidence of systemic inflammation and insulin resistance will be proposed as essential early indicators of future cardiovascular disease.