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Forecasting Ischemic Heart Disease, Stroke, and Peripheral Artery Disease Mortality in Brazil Through 2040: A
Pedro Rafael Vieira de Oliveira Salerno1, Antoinette Cotton2, Bruno R Nascimento3
1Department of Medicine, NYC Health + Hospitals/Elmhurst, Icahn School of Medicine at Mt. Sinai, Queens, NY - EUA.
Insights
Mortality from ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke is projected to decrease in Brazil, but peripheral artery disease (PAD) mortality is expected to increase, especially in women. Targeted public health interventions are crucial.
Area of Science:
- Cardiovascular epidemiology
- Public health
- Biostatistics
Background:
- Atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases, including ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, and peripheral artery disease (PAD), are the primary cause of cardiovascular mortality in Brazil.
- Understanding future mortality trends is essential for effective public health planning and resource allocation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To project future mortality trends for IHD, stroke, and PAD in Brazil up to the year 2040.
- To analyze sex-specific mortality patterns for these conditions.
Main Methods:
- Utilized Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data for annual death counts (1990-2021) in individuals aged 40-79.
- Employed Bayesian age-period-cohort models to project mortality rates from 2022 to 2040.
- Calculated crude and age-standardized mortality rates, relative percentage changes, and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs).
Main Results:
- IHD mortality rate projected to decline by 14.16% and stroke by 17.36% by 2040.
- PAD mortality rate projected to increase by 10.99% by 2040.
- Significant sex disparities observed: IHD and stroke mortality declining more in men, while PAD mortality is projected to rise in both sexes, particularly in women.
Conclusions:
- While IHD and stroke mortality trends are favorable, the projected rise in PAD mortality necessitates focused attention.
- The increasing PAD mortality, especially among women, underscores the need for sex-specific and disease-specific public health strategies.
- The findings highlight the importance of continued monitoring and tailored interventions to address cardiovascular disease burden in Brazil.
Background:
Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease - particularly ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, and peripheral artery disease (PAD) - is the leading cause of cardiovascular mortality in Brazil.
Objectives:
This study aimed to project mortality trends for IHD, stroke, and PAD in Brazil through 2040.
Methods:
Annual death counts (1990-2021) for IHD, stroke, and PAD among individuals aged 40-79 years were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study. Mid-year population estimates for both observed (1990-2021) and projected (2022-2040) periods were used. Crude and age-standardized mortality rates were calculated. Bayesian age-period-cohort models were applied to project mortality rates from 2022 to 2040. Relative percentage changes and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were computed. Projections (per 100,000 population) are reported as medians with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), and EAPCs include bootstrap-derived confidence intervals (CIs).
Results:
Between 1990 and 2040, Brazil's population aged 40-79 years is projected to grow by 237.82%. The age-standardized mortality rate for IHD is expected to decline by 14.16% [from 118.61 in 2021 to 101.82 in 2040 (95% UI, 0.36-203.27)] (EAPC: -0.83% [95% CI, -0.84 to -0.83]); and for stroke by 17.36% [from 84.58 to 69.90 (95% UI, 0-152.48)] (EAPC: -1.07% [95% CI, -1.10 to -1.04]). In contrast, PAD mortality is projected to increase by 10.99% [from 1.82 to 2.02 (95% UI, 0-5.03)] (EAPC: 0.45% [95% CI, 0.30-0.59]). Additionally, sex-specific age-standardized mortality rates showed considerable variation. For IHD, rates are projected to decline by 25.31% among men (EAPC: -1.56% [95% CI, -1.57 to -1.55]), while increasing by 4.12% among women (EAPC: 0.14% [95% CI, 0.13-0.16]). Stroke mortality is expected to decrease by 30.00% in men (EAPC: -1.94% [95% CI, -1.96 to -1.91]) and by 4.52% in women (EAPC: -0.33% [95% CI, -0.37 to -0.29]). In contrast, PAD mortality is projected to rise by 14.64% in men (EAPC: 0.55% [95% CI, 0.38 to 0.71]) and by 21.92% in women (EAPC: 0.91% [95% CI, 0.78-1.02]).
Conclusion:
While mortality rates for IHD and stroke are projected to decline, PAD mortality is expected to rise - particularly among women - highlighting the urgent need for sex-specific and disease-specific public health interventions.
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