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Linking Community-Climate Disequilibrium to Ecosystem Function.

Michael Stemkovski¹, Michael H Cortez², Joey R Bernhardt³

¹Department of Wildland Resources and the Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, USA.

Ecology Letters

|January 23, 2026

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

Climate change causes mismatches between species and their environment. This study shows how these community-climate disequilibria can harm ecosystem functions, even impacting future ecological forecasts.

Keywords:

climate change community climate niche community turnover ecological acclimation lags nonstationary species composition timescale transient dynamics

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Area of Science:

Ecology
Climate Change Biology
Ecosystem Science

Background:

Species composition turnover often lags behind climate change, creating community-climate mismatches.
The impact of these disequilibria on ecosystem functions is understudied, with current methods assuming prior equilibrium.

Purpose of the Study:

To develop a theoretical model linking community-climate disequilibrium with ecosystem functioning.
To investigate how disequilibrium affects ecosystem function under climate change.
To explore methods for inferring disequilibrium without direct species distribution data.

Main Methods:

Development of a simple theoretical model connecting community-climate disequilibrium and ecosystem function.
Analysis of how disequilibrium impacts near-term and long-term ecosystem functioning.
Model fitting to simulated metacommunity time-series data of climate and ecosystem function.

Main Results:

Community-climate disequilibrium can impair ecosystem functioning in the short term, even if climate change is predicted to benefit it long-term.
Responses are most dynamic in slow-turnover communities with significant pre-existing disequilibrium.
The model demonstrates inferring community-climate disequilibrium from climate and function time-series data.

Conclusions:

Accurate estimation of community-climate disequilibria is crucial for improving ecological forecasts.
Dynamic disequilibrium concepts offer a new framework for ecological research.
Future research should apply these concepts across diverse ecosystems to test novel hypotheses.