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Fractional reaction-diffusion modeling and machine learning for vegetation pattern analysis in Junggar Basin under

Yimamu Maimaiti1, Shanwei Li1, Jianping Zhao1

  • 1College of Mathematics and System Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830046, People's Republic of China.

Chaos (Woodbury, N.Y.)
|January 23, 2026
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Summary

This study models vegetation-climate dynamics in the Junggar Basin, revealing that favorable climate scenarios like SSP1-2.6 promote vegetation growth, while others, particularly SSP5-8.5, accelerate desertification.

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Area of Science:

  • Ecological modeling
  • Climate science
  • Geophysics

Background:

  • Climate change significantly impacts vegetation patterns globally.
  • Understanding vegetation-climate dynamics is crucial for predicting ecosystem responses.
  • The Junggar Basin faces unique environmental challenges influencing its vegetation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a refined vegetation-climate dynamic model incorporating vegetation physiological processes.
  • To investigate the impact of climate change on vegetation patterns in the Junggar Basin.
  • To predict future vegetation growth under various climate scenarios.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a vegetation-climate dynamic model using a fractional-in-space diffusion model.
  • Integrated key climatic factors: precipitation, temperature, and CO2.
  • Performed numerical simulations with Junggar Basin data and machine learning algorithms for future predictions.

Main Results:

  • An inverse relationship was found between the fractional-order coefficient and Turing instability domain size.
  • Heat stress, water, and CO2 fertilization significantly influence vegetation growth.
  • SSP1-2.6 is favorable for vegetation growth; SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 suppress it, with SSP5-8.5 showing the fastest desertification.

Conclusions:

  • The developed model provides insights into vegetation-climate interactions.
  • Climate change, particularly under SSP5-8.5, poses a significant threat of desertification in the Junggar Basin.
  • Targeted mitigation and adaptation strategies are necessary to preserve vegetation cover.