Machine Learning Model Based on Multiparametric MRI for Distinguishing HER2 Expression Level in Breast Cancer

This study aimed to develop machine learning models based on conventional MRI features to classify HER2 expression levels in invasive breast cancer and explore their association with disease-free survival (DFS). A total of 678 patients from two centers were included, with Center 1 divided into training and internal test sets and Center 2 serving as an external test set. Random Forest models were trained to distinguish HER2-positive vs. HER2-negative (Task 1) and HER2-low vs. HER2-zero tumors (Task 2) using BI-RADS-based MRI features. SHapley Additive exPlanations were applied to rank feature importance, assist feature selection, and enhance model interpretability. DFS was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank tests. In Task 1, key features included tumor size, axillary lymph nodes, fibroglandular tissue, peritumoral edema, and multifocal, achieving AUCs of 0.75 and 0.73 in the internal and external test sets, respectively. In Task 2, tumor size, peritumoral edema, and multifocal yielded AUCs of 0.73 and 0.72, respectively. Higher task-specific model scores were associated with shorter DFS in Task 1 (p = 0.037) and longer DFS in Task 2 (p = 0.046). MRI-based machine learning models can noninvasively stratify HER2 expression levels, with potential for prognostic stratification and clinical application.