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Global warming increases climate variability, destabilizing forest ecosystems. Tree growth has become less predictable due to rising temperatures, impacting forest resilience.

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Climate Science
  • Forestry

Background:

  • Global warming is increasing climate and weather variability.
  • The impact of this variability on forest ecosystem stability is not well understood.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate how global warming-induced climate variability affects tree growth stability.
  • To model the relationship between tree growth variance and mean growth rate.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized global tree-ring data spanning 1401-2010.
  • Calculated 5-year variance and mean tree growth rates.
  • Modeled the variance-mean relationship and its correlation with global warming trends.

Main Results:

  • Global average tree growth variance increased by 40.0% versus 8.5% for the mean over the past century.
  • Increased variance strongly correlated with accelerated global warming since the 1970s (r=0.93).
  • The variance-mean power law exponent, indicating a growth-safety tradeoff, increased under global warming, especially in wetter habitats and less drought-resistant species.

Conclusions:

  • Global warming has significantly destabilized tree growth, making forest dynamics less predictable.
  • Forest ecosystems face increasing risks to their functioning due to climate change.
  • The findings highlight an environment- and trait-dependent decrease in resistance to a warmer climate.