Climate Change and Biotic Interactions Will Change the Distributions of Ungulates on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Species interactions are crucial for understanding how species will respond to future climate change. Incorporating interspecific relationships into mammalian distribution prediction models will significantly impact model outcomes, especially those for animals on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). Thus, we incorporated interspecific relationships into species distribution models to assess and predict the future distributions of five ungulates, including the Red deer (Cervus elaphus), the Kiang (Equus kiang), the Tibetan gazelle (Procapra picticaudata), the Tibetan antelope (Pantholops hodgsonii), and the Bharal (Pseudois nayaur). We found that (1) the suitable habitats of these five ungulates were all predicted to increase between the present and 2050; (2) the suitable distribution areas of four of these ungulates were predicted to be smaller when interspecific relationships were incorporated into the models, with the exception of the Red deer, whose suitable habitat was estimated to be larger; and (3) the centroids of suitable habitat for the five ungulates were predicted to shift to the southern part of the QTP by 2050. Our results demonstrated that interspecific relationships could influence predictions of species distributions, and thus incorporating interspecific relationships will facilitate better assessments and predictions of the future distributions of species.