Temperature Changes Affect the Vulnerability of Cotton Bollworms, Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner)

The cotton bollworm, Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner), a cosmopolitan agricultural pest, inflicts severe impacts on global agriculture. As a poikilotherm, it was highly susceptible to climate change, yet critical gaps persist in understanding how its sensitivity interacts with climatic shifts-knowledge essential for integrated pest management (IPM). We, therefore, analyzed H. armigera's susceptibility to temperature variations using long-term pest population and meteorological data from Maigaiti and Bachu Counties (southern Xinjiang) and Shawan County (northern Xinjiang). The results showed H. armigera populations increased overall, with reduced interannual fluctuation magnitude. The main meteorological factors influencing the interannual population changes of H. armigera in Maigaiti, Bachu, and Shawan were T_max difference in winter (98.0%), T_min difference in May (80.7%), and T_min difference in July (99.4%), respectively. Higher winter temperature (particularly February) reduced the spring population sizes across all three regions, with only the population in Bachu showing a significant correlation. For annual populations, warmer winter caused a significant decline in Bachu, a marked increase in Maigaiti, and a non-significant rise in Shawan. Summer temperature below 33 °C boosted populations in all regions; above 33 °C, the Maigaiti population declined non-significantly, while the Bachu population dropped significantly. Climate warming advanced the pest's first appearance, delayed its disappearance, and extended its active period, increasing population size-a trend projected to intensify in the future. Maigaiti and Shawan populations were governed by T_max in winter and T_min in July, respectively, whereas the Bachu population was constrained by temperature differences during multiple key growth and development periods throughout the year. These divergent regulatory patterns and climatic responses reflect varying vulnerability levels, providing a theoretical basis for targeted H. armigera control.