Adaptive Basin Management under Determinate and Indeterminate Sustainability Factors

Adaptive river basin management is uncertain and complex, as it requires assessing the combined effects of climate change and human activities. Conventional strength-weakness-opportunities and threat (SWOT) decision analysis failed to quantify the indeterminacy concerning factors in adaptive management. To address these limitations, this study introduces a hybrid decision-support system that combines interval valued fuzzy hybrid SWOT (IVFH-SWOT) analysis with fuzzy evaluation of resilience metrics (FERM). To demonstrate its effectiveness, the study evaluated 11 strategic options across four aspects of adaptive sustainability: ecological balance, hydrological-geomorphological integrity, socio-economic and energy potential, and catastrophe resilience. The derived strategies were prioritized based on the multi-stakeholder analysis performed on the data gathered about these four aspects. The findings underscore dam operations regulations (score: 0.7561), treatment of wastewater infrastructure (0.7226), and development of hydropower (0.7122) as the most efficacious strategies. These findings illustrate the trade-offs between resilience performance and sustainability under indeterminate conditions. The proposed framework offers a robust, transferable tool for practitioners and policymakers for adaptive sustainable river basin management.