Exploring graphical approaches to assess the impact of an additional trial on a decision model via updated...

Graphical displays are often utilised for high-quality reporting of meta-analyses. Previous work has presented augmentations to funnel plots that assess the impact that an additional trial would have on an existing meta-analysis. However, decision-makers, such as the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence in the United Kingdom, assess health technologies based on their cost-effectiveness, as opposed to efficacy alone. Motivated by this fact, this article outlines a novel approach, developed for augmenting funnel plots, based on the ability of an additional trial to change a decision regarding the optimal intervention. The approach is presented for a generalised class of economic decision models, where the clinical effectiveness of the health technology of interest is informed by a meta-analysis, and is illustrated with an example application. The 'decision contours' produced from the proposed methods have various potential uses not only for decision-makers and research funders but also for other researchers, such as meta-analysts and primary researchers designing new studies, as well as those developing health technologies, such as pharmaceutical companies. The relationship between the new approach and existing methods for determining sample size calculations for future trials is also considered.