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Climate change threatens Alpine endemic plants. High-elevation species may persist in refugia, but limited stepping stones hinder range shifts, risking extinction without conservation action.

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Conservation Biology
  • Climate Change Science

Background:

  • Anthropogenic climate change poses a significant threat to mountain biodiversity, especially endemic species with restricted ranges and limited dispersal capabilities.
  • Endemic species face survival challenges due to climate change, with options including in-situ persistence or range shifts to track suitable habitats.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess the impact of global warming on seven endemic plant species in the South-western Alps.
  • To investigate how different types of refugia (long-term, holdouts, stepping stones) support species survival under various climate change scenarios.
  • To determine if refugia patterns are species-specific and to analyze the elevational distribution of these refugia.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized species distribution models to predict habitat suitability for seven endemic plant species.
  • Modeled suitability under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) across three future time slices (2021-2080).
  • Employed five predictive models to assess potential impacts and classified persistence areas into long-term refugia, holdouts, and stepping stones.

Main Results:

  • Habitat suitability is projected to decline for most populations, with high-elevation species showing greater resilience, often gaining suitability at higher altitudes.
  • Long-term refugia are prevalent under moderate climate change (SSP245), while holdouts become dominant under extreme scenarios (SSP585).
  • Stepping stone habitats are scarce, indicating potential difficulties for species to track shifting climates; refugia distribution follows an elevational gradient.

Conclusions:

  • Alpine endemic plants are highly vulnerable to climate change, necessitating conservation strategies that incorporate range shifts and potentially active translocation.
  • The limited availability of stepping stones highlights challenges for species migration, emphasizing the need for proactive conservation planning.
  • Conservation efforts must consider the elevational dynamics of refugia to ensure the long-term survival of these unique species.