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Blind Challenges Let Us See the Path Forward for Predictive Models.

John D Chodera1, W Patrick Walters2, Sriram Kosuri3

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Artificial intelligence and machine learning models promise to accelerate drug discovery. Blind challenges are essential for accurately assessing predictive performance and overcoming accuracy barriers in computational drug design.

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Area of Science:

  • Computational chemistry
  • Drug discovery informatics
  • Artificial intelligence in medicine

Background:

  • AI/ML models are rapidly advancing drug discovery, but their predictive accuracy is often overstated.
  • Diverse molecular representations are used for on-target (structural) and off-target/ADMET (implicit) predictions.
  • Existing retrospective benchmarks may not accurately reflect real-world predictive success.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To address the need for realistic evaluation of AI/ML model performance in drug discovery.
  • To highlight the limitations of current benchmarking methods for molecular property prediction.
  • To emphasize the importance of prospective, standardized comparisons.

Main Methods:

  • Discusses the role of retrospective benchmarks and their limitations.
  • Highlights the significance of blind challenges (e.g., OpenADMET × ASAP × PolarisHub Challenge).
  • Emphasizes the need for standardized, prospective comparisons of predictive models.

Main Results:

  • Retrospective benchmarks can be misleading regarding model performance.
  • Blind challenges offer a more realistic assessment of predictive capabilities.
  • Community-led initiatives and open data are crucial for progress.

Conclusions:

  • Standardized, prospective evaluations are vital for validating AI/ML models in drug discovery.
  • Blind challenges are key to identifying and overcoming accuracy barriers.
  • Continued investment in data and community challenges will accelerate AI-driven drug discovery.