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Multidisciplinary prediction of running-related injuries using machine learning.

Han Wu1, Katherine Brooke-Wavell2, Michael R Barnes3

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Summary

This study developed a machine learning dataset for predicting endurance running injuries using diverse risk factors. The models showed moderate improvement in injury prediction accuracy, with Random Forest performing best.

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Area of Science:

  • Sports Medicine
  • Biomechanical Engineering
  • Data Science

Background:

  • Endurance running-related injuries (RRIs) have complex, multifactorial causes.
  • Existing research often overlooks multidisciplinary risk factors for individualized RRI prediction.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To create a machine learning-ready dataset for weekly RRI prediction.
  • To evaluate the efficacy of machine learning models using multidisciplinary risk factors.

Main Methods:

  • Collected data on genetic, historical, biomechanical, physiological, and training factors from 142 competitive runners over 12 months.
  • Developed and tested machine learning models using both high-evidence and broader sets of risk factors.
  • Prospectively monitored runners for RRIs, accumulating 6181 weekly samples.

Main Results:

  • Machine learning models achieved an AUC of 0.784 ± 0.014, showing moderate improvement over previous RRI prediction.
  • Random Forest models demonstrated the highest performance (AUC = 0.781 ± 0.016).
  • Logistic regression performance significantly improved with a broader set of risk factors.

Conclusions:

  • Introduced a reproducible framework for machine learning-based sports injury prediction.
  • Provided a valuable dataset for future large-scale sports injury analytics.
  • Highlighted the importance of multidisciplinary data and model selection for accurate RRI prediction.