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Risk Factors Associated with Secondary Measles Transmission in Index Cases
Yuki Takahashi1, Hideo Tanaka2, Toshiyuki Shibata1
1Health and Medical General Affairs Division, Osaka Prefectural Government.
Background:
Limited information has been shown quantitatively assessed factors associated with the risk of secondary transmission in measles index cases.
Method:
We collected data on measles index cases reported in Osaka Prefecture between November 2018 and March 2019, along with their close contacts. Secondary attack rates (SARs) in contacts of index cases were calculated and compared depending on the vaccination status, classical or modified measles and other risk factors in index cases. For the multivariate analyses, we used binary logistic regression to adjust for these potential confounding factors on the secondary transmission and calculated the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for the SARs.
Result:
A total of 105 index cases were included, involving 9,846 close contacts, with 72 secondary cases identified. A significant negative association between the number of vaccinations received by index cases and the risk of secondary infection in his/her close contacts (p < 0.01). Index cases who had received one vaccine dose had an aOR of 0.22 (95% CI: 0.08-0.65), while those with two or more doses had an aOR of 0.25 (95% CI: 0.07-0.85). Index cases who did not exhibit all three classic measles symptoms had a significantly lower risk of causing secondary infections compared to those who presented with all three symptoms (aOR: 0.12, 95% CI: 0.03-0.39).
Conclusion:
The indirect protective effect of measles vaccination would present important evidence supporting the further strengthening of vaccination policies.
Insights
Measles vaccination significantly reduces secondary transmission risk. Index cases with one or more vaccine doses, and those without classic measles symptoms, had a substantially lower risk of infecting close contacts.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Infectious Disease Control
- Public Health
Background:
- Quantitative assessment of factors influencing secondary transmission in measles index cases is limited.
- Understanding these factors is crucial for effective outbreak control.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantitatively assess factors associated with the risk of secondary transmission from measles index cases.
- To evaluate the impact of vaccination status and symptom presentation on measles spread.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective analysis of measles index cases and their close contacts in Osaka Prefecture (Nov 2018-Mar 2019).
- Calculation of secondary attack rates (SARs) stratified by index case characteristics.
- Multivariate logistic regression analysis to determine adjusted odds ratios (aOR) for secondary transmission.
Main Results:
- 105 index cases and 9,846 contacts yielded 72 secondary cases.
- Increased measles vaccination in index cases showed a significant negative association with secondary infection risk (p < 0.01).
- Index cases lacking all three classic measles symptoms had a significantly lower risk of transmission (aOR: 0.12).
Conclusions:
- Measles vaccination demonstrates a significant indirect protective effect, reducing secondary transmission.
- Findings support strengthening vaccination policies to enhance public health protection against measles.
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