[Multi-scenario Simulation of Land Use and Carbon Stock Assessment in the Urban Agglomeration Around Taihu Lake Based...

Exploring the impacts of spatial and temporal land use evolution on carbon stock in the urban agglomeration around Taihu Lake is of great significance for the management of regional ecosystem carbon pools and the realization of regional low-carbon and high-quality development. Using the PLUS-InVEST-Geodetector model， we explored the spatial and temporal patterns of land use and carbon stock and their different characteristics from 2000 to 2020； predicted and simulated the distribution characteristics of spatial patterns of land use and carbon stock under the scenarios of natural development， urban development， and ecological protection in 2030； and revealed the reasons for the impacts on the changes of carbon stock. The results showed that： ① From 2000 to 2020， the cultivated land area of the urban agglomeration around Taihu Lake decreased by 26.3%， and the built-up land area increased by 147.5%， with the main driving factors being the population size， elevation， and the relative distance to secondary roads. ② The carbon stock in the urban agglomeration around Taihu Lake showed a spatial distribution characteristic of high in the southwest and low in the northeast， with an overall decrease of 8.17%， in which cropland and forest land lost 48.84 and 5.36 Mt， respectively. The shift in land use type was the main reason for the decrease in carbon stock. ③ Based on the comparison of the three scenarios in 2030， the ecological protection scenario had higher carbon stock （469.865 Mt） and lower carbon loss （-11.545 Mt）. The high carbon stock areas were mainly distributed in the western and southern parts of Taihu Lake， while the low value areas were concentrated in the eastern and northern parts. ④ The attribution analysis showed that the natural environmental factors had a significantly higher influence on carbon stock than the socioeconomic factors.