[Ecological Management Zoning and Scenario Simulation of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area Based on Ecosystem Service...

Ecological management zoning is a crucial tool for land use governance and spatial optimization， serving as a foundational strategy for implementing differentiated regional management and protection. It plays a key role in mitigating human-environment conflicts and fostering the sustainable development of both ecological and socio-economic systems. Focusing on the Three Gorges Reservoir area， an essential ecological corridor in the middle Yangtze River Basin， this study quantitatively analyzes the supply and demand of ecosystem services. Using a bivariate local spatial autocorrelation model and a coupling coordination model， the study explores the relationship between ecosystem service supply and demand and the intensity of land use. The study then delineates ecological management zones and simulates changes in zoning patterns under two distinct scenarios for 2030. The results show that： ① In 2020， both natural factors and human activities influenced the supply and demand of ecosystem services in the Three Gorges Reservoir area， resulting in significant spatial heterogeneity. Notably， the main urban area of Chongqing exhibited a severe imbalance in the supply-demand relationship of ecosystem services. ② Based on the coupling coordination analysis of ecosystem service supply-demand and land use intensity， the Three Gorges Reservoir area was categorized into four ecological zones： the ecological coordinated development zone， ecological potential development zone， ecological imbalance risk zone， and ecological strict control zone. This zoning approach aids in accurately identifying the ecological status of different regions and formulating targeted protection and development strategies， thereby promoting the sustainable integration of ecological and economic development. ③ Scenario simulations for 2030 indicated an expansion of the ecological coordinated development zone in both scenarios， particularly in certain areas of the urban core of Chongqing. This suggests that urban areas are not entirely dominated by human-environment conflicts and that regions of ecological coupling coordination still exist. Future research should focus on enhancing ecological coordination within urban areas to further optimize the relationship between ecological conservation and human activities. These findings provide valuable insights for maintaining ecological balance and advancing sustainable development in the Three Gorges Reservoir area.